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The Future of Democracy Lies in Our Instincts

  • Writer: Nathan J. Murphy
    Nathan J. Murphy
  • 44 minutes ago
  • 20 min read

Liberal democracy is on the back foot. Across America, Britain, and much of the democratic world, inequality is deepening, trust in institutions is collapsing, and populist and illiberal movements are gaining ground. In the UK, only 45% of citizens now believe democracy works well, while in the United States nearly one-third doubt whether it remains viable. 1–5 Across Europe, faith in democratic institutions has fallen to its lowest level in decades as far-right parties advance and “illiberal democracy” becomes an openly declared model. These are not isolated disruptions but cumulative evidence of a legitimacy crisis — a collapse of trust at the democratic centre that signals rising political instability. The rise of the extremes is not the cause of this erosion but its consequence.


As faith in democracy falters, the political centre offers little more than piecemeal fixes while the public hungers for bold change and a convincing vision of the future. This is not simply a failure of leaders or policies. Its roots lie in the flawed assumptions at the heart of the post-war liberal consensus; a framework designed for a world recovering from catastrophe. That settlement once delivered peace and prosperity; now, overextended and outdated, it has become part of the problem.


If the twentieth century gave us the ideas to rebuild after war, the twenty-first demands something equally foundational: a renewal of faith in democracy itself. Our short book, Liberalism That Wins: A New Foundation for Democratic Renewal (Prepolitica, 2025), argues for such a renewal — a framework grounded not in abstract ideals but in how human beings actually think, feel, and live together. What we call Scientific Liberalismfn1 offers a way to restore legitimacy, rebuild trust, and out-compete the extremes by grounding politics in our evolved moral instincts: fairness, care, cooperation, and the need for belonging within groups.


Where We Are: The Erosion of Legitimacy

In the aftermath of World War II’s destruction, the victorious democracies built a system designed to secure stability, cooperation, and shared prosperity. The post-war liberal order combined democracy, capitalism, human rights, and social welfare — and for decades, it delivered. 6–8 Living standards rose, democratic institutions spread, wars between major powers were avoided, and the world became vastly more prosperous.


But legitimacy is now faltering. Today, the threats are not primarily external; they are internal contradictions that have deepened over decades.


Economic globalisation, once hailed as a guarantor of peace and prosperity, has delivered mixed results. It lifted millions out of poverty in developing countries, but in the West it hollowed out industry, eroded working-class communities, and concentrated wealth at levels not seen since the nineteenth century.9–16 Financialisation, outsourcing, and the prioritisation of capital over labour have entrenched inequality and left entire regions behind.


Corruption has become institutionalised, with political funding and economic systems tilted against the majority.17–25 Meritocracy, long promoted as a fairer alternative to hereditary privilege, has developed its own distortions.26–28 A credentialed elite now defines “merit” on its own terms, turning education into a costly barrier rather than a ladder of opportunity, while technocratic governance — its natural extension — has further insulated political and economic decision-making from public accountability.26–28


Mass immigration, another feature of globalisation, has brought economic benefits, but these have not been evenly shared. Gains have often flowed to those at the top, while costs — from wage suppression to pressure on housing, services, and cultural cohesion — have been borne disproportionately by those with less. 29–39 Where mainstream leaders dismissed these concerns as prejudice, they deepened resentment and fuelled the rise of far-right movements. 40–43


Meanwhile, sovereignty itself has been eroded. As more decisions are ceded to global markets, treaties, and supranational institutions, many citizens feel that their votes no longer shape outcomes.


These pressures converge in a deep sense of helplessness: wages stagnant, costs rising, services declining, politics unresponsive.44–48 For too long, centrist leaders have responded with technocratic fixes and managerialism — essentially offering “more of the same.”


The result is a legitimacy crisis. The post-war liberal consensus, once stabilising, has ossified into an ideology that no longer matches lived reality. Where citizens perceive unfairness, neglect, or exclusion, trust evaporates. And when legitimacy fails, governments must increasingly rely on force — through propaganda, spin, policing, or repression. Force may preserve order briefly, but it is always costly, destabilising, and corrosive of freedom.


Illiberal movements exploit the vacuum. From Brexit to Trump, from Orbán to Le Pen, the boldest visions now on offer are openly hostile to liberal democracy itself. The lesson is clear: defending the old order is not enough. Liberal democracy must be rebuilt on firmer moral and intellectual foundations — foundations capable of supporting a coherent and inspiring vision of the future.


Reframing Politics: The Four Questions of Group

To meet today’s crisis, we must start deeper than policy. Political movements are not just the promotion of programmes but an answer to what we call the four questions of group:

Questions of Group

In other words…

What is society for? (Purpose)

Why are we cooperating?

How to structure society? (Form)

What does cooperation look like?

What is progress? (Direction)

Where are we going?

How do we define the group? (Identity)

Who are we? (And who isn’t?)

Every political movement, consciously or not, answers these questions. But many of today’s ideologies do so poorly or evasively. Individualistic movements often sidestep collective purpose entirely, insisting society exists only to protect individual liberty. Egalitarian movements sometimes avoid defining group identity, wary of exclusion or of being seen as essentialising difference. The far right romanticises a fictional past, delivering regression in the name of restoration.


Scientific Liberalism shows that answering these questions coherently is not just an academic exercise but the key to rebuilding legitimacy. By grounding “purpose,” “form,” “direction,” and “identity” in evolved moral instincts, we can offer a vision that is credible to both progressives and conservatives — fairness and care for the former; belonging and competitiveness for the latter.


Such avoidance creates blind spots. A movement that promises enrichment while measuring progress only by stock market growth creates deep fault lines. Individualist ideologies evade shared purpose altogether; egalitarian ones hesitate to define identity; reactionary nationalism answers identity with exclusion and direction with regression, sustained by force.


The post-war consensus gave answers too, but partial and fragile ones: prosperity through markets and welfare management; progress as growth and integration; identity grounded in universal rights but leaving national belonging unresolved. This framework worked for decades, but its limits are now exposed.


To renew legitimacy, we must answer the four questions of group more clearly, and on firmer ground. That ground is human nature.


Human Nature as a Political Foundation

Scientific Liberalism begins with a simple but empirically supported claim: humans are innately moral.49–58 Our brains are wired with moral instincts — evolved preferences that shape how we interact, what we find legitimate, and what we resist.59


Political theory has long debated human nature — from Hobbesian scepticism to Rousseau’s optimism to modern constructivist views that treat morality as socially produced. Scientific Liberalism does not enter that debate as ideology but as evidence. Its claim is functional rather than deterministic: societies are more legitimate and competitive when they align with the moral psychology revealed by behavioural and evolutionary science. This framework treats biology as a foundation, not a cage — a starting condition that political systems must work with, not surrender to.


These instincts are not cultural inventions or ideological fictions. They emerge early in life, recur across societies, and show signs of heritability. Like our taste for sugar or fat, they are part of our species’ evolutionary inheritance.


The evidence converges on four core instincts:


Fairness“fairness is better than unfairness.” We recoil at injustice, reward reciprocity, and even punish cheaters at personal cost. Fairness sustains trust; when denied, legitimacy collapses.60–69


Cooperation“cooperation is better than non-cooperation.” From infant helping behaviour to the neural rewards of teamwork, we are wired to collaborate.70–87 Highly cooperative societies are more efficient, resilient, and competitive.88–92


Care“caring is better than uncaring.” Empathy is an innate human behaviour that binds people together through concern and support, but it is also selective — strongest within perceived group boundaries and often diminished or reversed toward outsiders.93–109


Group Preference – humans are adapted to live in groups, bound by loyalty and solidarity. This instinct stabilises societies but can also fuel exclusion and conflict.80,110–128


Rather than moralising against belonging, Scientific Liberalism proposes to harness it. Liberal societies can do this through inclusive civic identities, shared institutions, and fair rules that expand — rather than suppress — the circle of belonging. When group preference is balanced with fairness and care it becomes a stabilising, not a divisive, force.


Yet when group preference is over-indexed — pursued in ways that are unfair, uncaring, or uncooperative — it degenerates into exclusion, cruelty, and domination. Such distortions are not merely immoral; they are politically self-defeating. They erode trust, corrode institutions, and destroy the very legitimacy that stable societies depend on. Scientific Liberalism therefore treats belonging as a moral resource that must be ethically balanced, not weaponised. By aligning group preference with fairness, care, and cooperation, liberal democracies can sustain both cohesion and freedom without sliding into tribalism or authoritarian control.


For progressives, the lesson is clear: group belonging is not a relic to transcend but a human need to answer. When progressives neglect it, others will fill the void — often with answers that divide rather than unite.


Together these four instincts form a universal moral architecture. They define our base political interests: the conditions societies must meet to feel psychologically satisfying.


ree

The Human Social Model — distilled to essence — describes how these evolved instincts interact to confer competitive advantage.


Legitimacy and Competitiveness

Political systems are most stable and legitimate when they reflect these instincts. People willingly accept and invest in systems that feel fair, caring, cooperative, and that respect group belonging.77,129–135 Where instincts are ignored, states must rely on coercion to maintain cooperation.136,137


Coercion — whether through propaganda or force — is always costly and destabilising, diverting energy and resources away from social provision and development. By contrast, moral alignment reduces friction, broadens participation, and unlocks human potential. The same instincts that once secured survival now determine which societies thrive.

Policy that embodies these instincts — fair tax systems, cooperative investment in public goods, caring health and education frameworks, and civic institutions that respect belonging — does not merely “feel better”; it works better, generating both legitimacy and competitiveness.


The lesson is that legitimacy and competitiveness are not separate goals but two sides of the same coin, each rooted in alignment with evolved moral nature.


This moral alignment is not abstract. It has concrete implications for how we design our institutions. A fair, caring, and cooperative society is not an abstraction: its principles can be built into the design of everyday systems. In criminal justice, a fairness–care balance points towards rehabilitation over retribution — prisons that restore cooperation and reciprocity rather than perpetuate cycles of harm. In housing, cooperation and care translate into long-term social investment — treating secure homes as civic infrastructure that sustains participation and trust, making affordability and stability moral imperatives rather than market outcomes. In each case, Scientific Liberalism offers a test: does this institution feel fair, care for those within it, fostercooperation, and respect group preference? If not, it will eventually lose trust and competitive vitality.


Social Design: Towards a Liberalism That Wins

Grounding politics in human nature allows us to re-answer the four questions of group with clarity:


Purpose: To create a fair and caring environment


Form: To be as cooperative as possible while upholding fairness and care, and respecting group preference.


Direction: Towards a more cooperative, fairer, and more caring group.


Identity: groups defined in ways that uphold fairness and care, while recognising boundaries are necessary


ree

Stable societies are like a three-legged stool: fairness, care, and cooperation are the legs; group preference is the seat that provides the context in which these instincts are enacted. Remove one, or overextend it at the expense of the others, and stability falters. Overemphasise markets while neglecting care, and inequality corrodes trust. Overemphasise care through heavy-handed regulation that undermines cooperation, and competitiveness diminishes. Ignore group belonging, and resentment festers. Every one-legged ideology — whether libertarianism, nationalism, communism, or laissez-faire capitalism — ultimately results in political instability.


The result of alignment is not only moral appeal but competitive strength. Societies succeed when their institutions — however imperfect — embody fairness, care, cooperation, and belonging.


This is the promise — a framework grounded in the human condition, capable of restoring legitimacy at home and ensuring competitiveness abroad. It offers the possibility to reunite the democratic centre, drawing strength from both traditions. To progressives, it affirms that fairness and care are not optional virtues but essential foundations of stability. To conservatives, it recognises that belonging and competitiveness are equally fundamental, rooted in human nature rather than ideology. By holding these instincts in balance, it moves beyond the tired battles of left and right, offering shared ground on which a renewed democratic order can be built.


The task before us is not to preserve liberal democracy as a museum piece, but to make it once again the most dynamic and convincing vision of the future. That requires an approach that is scientifically grounded, morally resonant, and strategically competitive. This is not compromise but renewal — a strategy that wins by being more legitimate, more resilient, and more competitive than its rivals.


You can order ‘Liberalism That Wins’ via Amazon, Apple and Kobo.


Footnote 1: Here, “scientific” does not imply certainty, ideological infallibility, or reducing politics to technical management. It denotes an empirical, adaptive, and fallible method, grounded in observed human behaviour and converging evidence from multiple fields. The aim is to anchor moral reasoning in a realistic understanding of human nature — making political systems more legitimate, resilient, and humane.

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About the Author

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Nathan J. Murphy is a political thinker and philosopher working at the intersection of political theory, science, and philosophy. His work explores how evidence-based thinking can strengthen democracy in an age of crisis. He is the author of Liberalism That Wins and founder of Prepolitica — an organisation that applies science to political renewal. 

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